Political Issues in the United States
| Dates | Total Online Interviews | ||
| Wave I | 1/4-25/2016 | 1,000 adults | 912 Likely to register to vote |
| Wave II | 6/8-7/5/2016 | 1,000 adults | 845 Likely to vote in November |
| Wave IIIA | 8/15-9/1/2016 | 514 adults | 453 Likely to vote in November |
| Wave IIIB | 9/1-22/2016 | 528 adults | 455 Likely to vote in November |
| Wave IV | 10/20-27/2016 | 495 adults | 440 say they will vote in November |
10b. If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
| 8/15-9/16 | 9/1-22/16 | 10/20-27/16 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 48 | 44 | 51 |
| Donald Trump | 37 | 40 | 37 |
| Gary Johnson | 11 | 13 | 6 |
| Jill Stein | 3 | 3 | 5 |
11. Who do you think is going to win?
| 1/4-25/16 | 6/8-7/5/16 | 8/15-9/1/16 | 9/1-22/16 | 10/20-27/16 | |
| Joe Biden | 1 | 1 | |||
| Hillary Clinton | 42 | 55 | 64 | 59 | 65 |
| Mitt Romney | 2 | – | |||
| Paul Ryan | 0 | 1 | |||
| Bernie Sanders | 9 | 6 | |||
| Donald Trump | 28 | 36 | 31 | 37 | 32 |
| Elizabeth Warren | – | ||||
| Gary Johnson | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Jill Stein | 2 | 1 | 3 |
29. Earlier you mentioned that you plan to vote. How certain are you that you will vote?
| 10/20-27/16 | |
| Completely certain | 74 |
| Extremely certain | 9 |
| Very certain | 7 |
| Somewhat certain | 8 |
| Hardly certain at all | 1 |
| Not at all certain | 1 |
30. Earlier you mentioned that you are going to vote for [candidate’s name]. How certain are you that you are going to vote for that individual?
| 10/20-27/16 | |
| Completely certain | 61 |
| Extremely certain | 14 |
| Very certain | 10 |
| Somewhat certain | 9 |
| Hardly certain at all | 4 |
| Not at all certain | 2 |